Apple TV - the iPod of the living room? As Apple's first dedicated living room platform, the world is watching to see if the company can help bridge the gap between Internet video and the center of the home entertainment universe - that is, the home TV.
While Apple didn't invent the digital music player (DMP) or the business of online music, it single-handedly spurred market growth and brought these concepts into the collective consciousness. Can it do the same thing for the online movie download market and Internet/CE bridge platforms?
Apple has the technology and marketing acumen to create demand for products and services where none existed before. But unlike the music market, developing (much less conquering) the online movie download business will prove more challenging for Apple.
Apple's Play for the Living Room - On the Future of Apple TV presents the most complete research available on Apple's movie-playing hardware and likely demand for iTunes-based movie downloads. Key reading for hardware vendors, movie studios, and both online and legacy video service providers, the report provides:
- A detailed discussion on the addition of movie downloads to Apple's iTunes service.
- Comprehensive research on consumer interest in an Apple media adapter serving movies to the living room TV.
- A technological and demographic profile of those interested.
- Detailed forecasts for unit sales of Apple TV through 2011.
This report is the latest in a long line of in-depth research produced by TDG and aimed at understanding what makes Apple successful - as both a business and a technology innovator - and where its flaws may lie.
Three Key Findings
- Existing Apple owners are twice as likely as others to use a online movie download service that extends to the home TV.
- Interest in and demand for Apple TV drops sharply at $300 or more per unit.
- Sales of Apple TV will remain below 12 million even through 2011 - a much more modest growth than that experienced by the iPod.
Report Excerpt:
As Apple celebrates its 30-year anniversary, it finds itself at a very unique moment in its specific history and that of the consumer electronic space in general.
During this time, Apple has evolved from a niche PC manufacturer with a unique following to a global leader in portable consumer electronics and online digital media. Given this unbelievable success, however, investors are impatiently awaiting Apple's next move. It can't continue its rapid growth with the iPod alone, so investors are expecting Apple to exploit other areas of consumer electronics and digital services.
As many TDG clients are aware, we have argued for several years that Apple would turn its focus to the digital living room sometime in 2007; so Steve Jobs' announcement of the Apple TV at MacWorld was not surprising. Of course, that's just the hardware part of the equation and those familiar with Apple know that its recent success is closely tied to binding a digital service (e.g. iTunes) to a specific platform (e.g. iPod) - a strategy we expect to be used for Apple's entry into the living room with the Apple TV.
Key Topics Covered:
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Understanding the Online Digital Video Landscape
1.2 Important Distinctions between the Digital Video and Music Markets
2.0 Profiling the iTunes Movie Service
2.1 Apple in the Living Room
2.2 The iTunes Movie Download Service
2.2.1 Overview
2.2.2 The Method and the Means
2.2.3 The Model
2.2.4 Issues and Challenges
2.2.5 The Future
3.0 Consumer Receptivity to a Set-Top-Based iTunes Movie Service
3.1 Background & Methodology
3.2 Interest in iTunes Movie Service with an Apple-Branded Set-Top Box
3.2.1 $200 or Less
3.2.2 $200-$300
3.2.3 $300-$400
3.2.4 More than $400
3.2.5 Interest and Power Ranking Comparison
4.0 Profiling iTunes-to-TV Movie Service Intenders
4.1 CE Ownership
4.1.1 iPods
4.1.2 TVs
4.1.2.1 TVs Owned
4.1.2.2 TV Purchasing Behavior
4.1.3 DVD Players
4.1.4 Game Consoles
4.1.5 DVRs
4.1.6 Home Theaters
4.1.7 Desktop PCs
4.1.8 Laptop PCs
4.2 Use of PayTV Services
4.3 Use of Value-Added TV Services
4.4 DVD Ownership & Purchasing Behavior
4.5 DVD Rental Behavior
4.5.1 Frequency of Rentals
4.5.2 Rental Services Currently Used
4.6 Technology Adopter Status
5.0 Key Demographics of Intenders
5.1 Age
5.2 Annual Household Income
5.3 Number of Children
6.0 Forecasts
6.1 Key Forecast Assumptions
6.1.1 Hardware: Apple is the Market
6.2 Forecasting Broadband Households
6.3 Apple TV Forecasts
6.3.1 Primary Research
6.3.2 Apple TV Forecast
7.0 Reflections and Recommendations
7.1 The Importance of Targeting Apple Loyalists
7.2 But Don’t Look Past the Non-Converted
7.3 Find a New Name!
7.4 Displacing DVDs is Inherently Problematic
List of Figures
Figure 1 The Alternative Universe of On-Demand Video
Figure 2 Total Album Sales by Type - US (2001 - 2005)
Figure 3 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at Less than $200
Figure 4 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at $200 to $300
Figure 5 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at $300 to $400
Figure 6 Proclivity to Purchase an Apple Movie Player at More than $400
Figure 7 Comparison of Purchase Proclivities of Apple Movie Player Across Price Points
Figure 8 iPod Ownership by Intender Segment
Figure 9 Number of Televisions in the Household by Intender Segment
Figure 10 Number of SD Digital TVs in the Household by Intender Segment
Figure 11 Number of HDTVs per Household by Intender Segment
Figure 12 Number of Analog TVs in the Household by Intender Segment
Figure 13 Date of Most Recent TV Purchase
Figure 14 Intended Date of Next TV Purchase
Figure 15 Intention to Purchase HDTV in the Next Six Months
Figure 16 Number of Stand-Alone DVD Players in the Household by Intender Segment
Figure 17 Number of Game Consoles in the Household by Intender Segment 34
Figure 18 Number of DVRs in the Household by Intender Segment
Figure 19 Home Theater Ownership by Intender Segment
Figure 20 Number of Desktop PCs in the Household by Intender Segment
Figure 21 Number of Laptop PCs by Intender Segment
Figure 22 Use of PayTV Services
Figure 23 Use of Digital Cable TV Services
Figure 24 Advanced Features/Services Used by Intender Segment
Figure 25 Number of DVDs in the Household by Intender Segment
Figure 26 Number of DVDs Purchased in Last Six Months by Intender Segment
Figure 27 Primary Reason for Purchasing Movies by Intender Segment
Figure 28 Number of Movies Rented Per Month by Intender Segment
Figure 29 Type(s) of Rental Services Used by Intender Segment
Figure 30 Technology Adopter Status by Intender Segment
Figure 31 Age of Respondent by Intender Segment
Figure 32 Annual Household Income by Intender Segment
Figure 33 Number of Children Living in the Home by Intender Segment
Figure 34 U.S. Broadband Households (2001 - 2010)
Figure 35 Evaluating TAM vs. Take Rate for iTunes-to-TV Movie Download Service
Figure 36 Apple TV Annual Unit Sales - US (2007 - 2011)
Figure 37 Apple TV Cumulative Unit Sales - US (2007 - 2011)
List of Tables
Table 1 iTunes’ Movie Sales Model
Table 2 Average Number of Televisions by Intender Segment
Table 3 Average Number of SD Digital TVs by Intender Segment
Table 4 Average Number of HDTVs by Intender Segment
Table 5 Average Number of Analog TVs by Intender Segment
Table 6 Average Number of DVD Players by Intender Segment
Table 7 Average Number of Game Consoles by Intender Segment
Table 8 Average Number of DVRs by Intender Segment
Table 9 Average Number of Desktop PCs by Intender Segment
Table 10 Average Number of Laptop PCs by Intender Segment
Table 11 Average Number of DVDs Purchased in Last Six Months by Intender Segment
Table 12 Average Number of Movies Rented Per Month by Intender Segment
Table 13 Average Age of Respondent by Intender Segment
Table 14 iPod Ownership and Interest in iTunes-to-TV Movie Service
Table 15 iTunes Video Usage and Interest in iTunes-to-TV Movie Service
Table 16 Number of iTunes Video Users by Household and Interest in iTunes-to- TV Movie Service
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