• U.S. home prices posted a 4.3% year-over-year gain in July, with no states posting double-digit gains
• Home prices showed no gains in July compared with the month before – the first July since 2010 that home prices didn’t increase outside the 2022 declines following a surge in mortgage rates
• By August, home prices are forecast to rise only 0.2% as the summer slowdown continues
• Miami once again took the lead as the metro with the greatest price growth among the top 10 largest metros

IRVINE, Calif. — (BUSINESS WIRE) — September 10, 2024 — CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) and HPI Forecast^™ for July 2024.

U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down, reaching 4.3% in July, falling further from the previous month’s 4.7% and resting below 5% for the third consecutive month. On a month-over-month basis, home prices decreased by 0.01% in July 2024 compared with June 2024. We will likely see home prices continue to slide for the remainder of the year as sales across the country slow. Although July marked the 150^th consecutive month of annual growth, monthly home price growth is starting to slip, and annual forecasts are showing smaller anticipated gains. By August, home prices are forecast to rise only 0.2%, and next year, prices will inch up by 2.2%.

Much of this sluggishness can be attributed to high mortgage interest rates that are continuing to challenge the housing market. As buyers remain cautious, sales remain low. However, the highly anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this fall may help improve consumer purchase sentiment for the housing market.

“Housing demand continued to buckle under the pressure of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices, leading to a considerable slowing of home price gains during the summer. July’s prices were essentially flat from the month before, which was notably cooler than the average gain of 0.4% recorded between June and July in years prior to the pandemic and especially during the pandemic,” said Dr. Selma Hepp chief economist for CoreLogic. “The question for home prices going forward is whether the upcoming rate cut from the Fed and expected continuation of falling mortgage rates will be sufficient to motivate potential homebuyers who may start to fear cooling labor market and continued uncertainty of a soft landing, along with anticipation around the presidential election. And while lower mortgage rates are a boost to affordability and are likely to help buyer demand, the usual fall housing market slowdown is upon us and is likely to contain any significant surge in activity.”

Nationally, home prices increased by 4.3% year over year in July. No states posted annual home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were Rhode Island (10.6%), New Jersey (9.7%), Connecticut (8.3%), South Dakota (8.1%), and Illinois (7.5%).

A look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros from July 2023 to July 2024 reveals that Miami again posted the highest gains, coming in at 9.1% year over year in July. Meanwhile, CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator (MRI) predicts that Gainesville, FL is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months, with a 70%-plus probability. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; and Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL; and Ogden-Clearfield, UT are also at very high risk for price declines.

Top Takeaways:

• U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 4.3% year over year in July 2024 compared with July 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices decreased by 0.01% compared with June 2024.
• CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 2.2% in July 2025.
• Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country's 10 highlighted metro areas in July, at 9.1%.
• Among states, Rhode Island ranked first for annual appreciation in July (up by 10.6%), followed by New Jersey (9.7%) and Connecticut (8.3%). No state recorded a year-over-year home price loss.

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring August 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on October 1, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI^™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts^™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provides monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

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