YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.9%, down from 17.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% in the previous month.
Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July. Tampa led the way with a 31.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami in second with a 31.7% increase, and Dallas in third with a 24.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending July 2022 versus the year ending June 2022.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.8%.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively.
In July, only 7 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
ANALYSIS
"Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July's report reflects a forceful deceleration," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index. We saw similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 14.9% in July vs. 17.4% in June) and our 20-City Composite (up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June). On a month-over-month basis, all three composites declined in July.
"The theme of strong but decelerating prices was reflected across all 20 cities. July's year-over-year price change was positive for each one of the 20 cities, with a median gain of 15.0%, but in every case July's gain was less than June's. Prices declined in 12 cities on a month-to-month basis. Tampa (+31.8%) narrowly edged Miami (+31.7%) to remain at the top of the league table for the fifth consecutive month, with Dallas (+24.7%) holding on to third place. As has been the case for the last several months, price growth was strongest in the Southeast (+27.5%) and South (+26.9%).
"As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak (%) |
Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 307.45 | 129.4 % | 66.5 % |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 316.28 | 135.9 % | 53.1 % |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 327.54 | 123.7 % | 44.7 % |
