Please note that transaction records for July 2020 for Wayne County, MI are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown, S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate a valid July 2020 update of the Detroit S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices.
However, there are not a sufficient number of records for the month of August for Detroit. Since Wayne is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic are unable to generate a valid Detroit index value for the October release. When the sale transactions data fully resumes and sufficient data is collected, the Detroit index values for the month(s) with missing updates will be calculated.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.7% annual gain in August, up from 4.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, up from 3.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.2% year-over-year gain, up from 4.1% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in August. Phoenix led the way with a 9.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with an 8.5% increase and San Diego with a 7.6% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending August 2020 versus the year ending July 2020.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.1% before seasonal adjustment in August. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.5%. In August, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"Housing prices were strong in August," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The National Composite Index gained 5.7% relative to its level a year ago, well ahead of July's 4.8% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively) also rose at an accelerating pace in August. The strength of the housing market was consistent nationally – all 19 cities for which we have August data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in August than they had done in the 12 months ended in July.
"A trend of accelerating increases in the National Composite Index began in August 2019 but was interrupted in May and June, as COVID-related restrictions produced modestly-decelerating price gains. We speculated last month that the accelerating trend might have resumed, and August's results easily bear that interpretation. The last time that the National Composite matched August's 5.7% growth rate was 25 months ago, in July 2018. If future reports continue in this vein, we may soon be able to conclude that the COVID-related deceleration is behind us.
"Phoenix's 9.9% increase topped the league table for August; this is the 15th consecutive month in which Phoenix home prices rose more than those of any other city. Seattle (8.5%) once again took the silver medal, with San Diego (7.6%) in third place. It's a measure of housing's strength that even the worst-performing cities, Chicago (1.2%) and New York (2.8%), did better in August than in July. Prices were strongest in the West and Southeast regions, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak
|
Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 223.97 | 67.1% | 21.3% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 229.35 | 71.1% | 11.1% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 241.47 | 64.9% | 6.7% |