YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.2% annual gain in February, up from 3.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.9%, up from 2.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.5% year-over-year gain, up from 3.1% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Phoenix led the way with a 7.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.0% increase, and Tampa and Charlotte with 5.2% increases. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending February 2020 versus the year ending January 2020.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index and the 10-City Composite both posted a 0.4% month-over-month increase, while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.5% increase before seasonal adjustment in February. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.4% increases. In February, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"The stable growth pattern established in the last half of 2019 continued into February," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The National Composite Index rose by 4.2% in February 2020, and the 10- and 20-City Composites also advanced (by 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively). Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 17 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices. The National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in February than they had in January.
"At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the ninth consecutive month, with a gain of 7.5% for February. Home prices in Seattle rose by 6.0%, with Tampa and Charlotte prices both gaining 5.2%. Prices were particularly strong in the West and Southeast, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.
"Importantly, today's report covers real estate transactions closed during the month of February, and shows no signs of any adverse effect from the governmental suppression of economic activity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As much of the U.S. economy was shuttered in March, next month's data may begin to reflect the impact of these policies on the housing market."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak (%) |
Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 213.16 | 59.1% | 15.5% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 219.75 | 63.9% | 6.4% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 232.33 | 58.6% | 2.7% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for February 2020. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| February 2020 | February/January | January'20/December'19 | 1-Year | ||||
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | ||||
| Atlanta | 155.78 | 0.5% | 0.2% | 4.6% | ||||
| Boston | 223.87 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 4.9% | ||||
| Charlotte | 167.61 | 0.2% | -0.1% | 5.2% | ||||
| Chicago | 142.56 | 0.2% | -0.9% | 0.7% | ||||
| Cleveland | 126.61 | 0.2% | -0.3% | 4.3% | ||||
| Dallas | 193.26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.5% | ||||
| Denver | 225.01 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 3.4% | ||||
| Detroit | 127.71 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 3.7% | ||||
| Las Vegas | 196.72 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.5% | ||||
| Los Angeles | 290.67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.7% | ||||
| Miami | 248.44 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 3.3% | ||||
| Minneapolis | 179.39 | 0.9% | -0.5% | 5.0% | ||||
| New York | 203.83 | 0.4% | -0.2% | 1.5% | ||||
| Phoenix | 201.46 | 0.7% | 0.3% | 7.5% | ||||
| Portland | 242.77 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 4.9% | ||||
| San Diego | 265.34 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 4.6% | ||||
| San Francisco | 268.21 | 0.9% | -0.4% | 3.4% | ||||
| Seattle | 259.65 | 1.3% | 0.8% | 6.0% | ||||
| Tampa | 227.03 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | ||||
| Washington | 235.97 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.7% | ||||
| Composite-10 | 232.33 | 0.4% | -0.1% | 2.9% | ||||
| Composite-20 | 219.75 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.5% | ||||
| U.S. National | 213.16 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.2% | ||||
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through February 2020 |
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