Commentary: Electronics IP Industry — A May 2006 Update

by Dr. Russ Henke and Dr. Jack Horgan
Henke Associates

In their September 2003, December 2003, February 2004, May 2004, August 2004, November 2004, February 2005, May 2005, August 2005, November 2005 and February 2006 Electronics IP Industry Commentaries, the authors examined the recent financial histories and future outlooks of the remarkable phenomenon of Electronics Intellectual Property (IP) providers, a niche that has emerged in its own right to claim a substantial amount of revenue in the world of Electronics Design Automation. We had arbitrarily selected eight (8) publicly-traded companies originally (then called the "Group-of-8" or "G8"), as representative of the current financial state of the Electronics IP industry. At the end of 2004, ARM completed its acquisition of Artisan Components, Inc., thereby reducing our "G8" to "G7". Accordingly, in this May 2006 Commentary, we look at the financial performances of the "G7" Electronics IP vendors during the first quarter of 2006.

Group-of-7 ("G7"):

For the "G7" companies above, we assume that all of their revenues are Electronics IP sales and directly related IP services.

Recent Electronics IP News Highlights

On May 1, 2006, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported that worldwide sales of semiconductors of $59.1 billion in the first quarter of 2006 were 7.3% higher than the first quarter of 2005, when global sales were $55.1 billion. First-quarter sales declined by 1.3% from the fourth quarter of 2005, when semiconductor sales were $59.9 billion. The SIA said the sequential decline reflected normal seasonal patterns.

How did the Electronics IP G7 perform in the First Quarter of 2006?

On the revenue front, Table 1 below reveals that the G7's combined Q1 2006 performance was up 9.5% year-over-year. Percentage-wise, MoSys led the pack with 31% growth. Rambus and Virage Logic had growth approaching 20%. LogicVision and Ceva were the largest decliners at -36% and -19%, respectively.

On a sequential basis, growth of the G7 was still positive, at 7.2%. MoSys was again the percentage growth leader at 47% with Rambus and Virage Logic next, with 14% and 11% growth, respectively. Only LogicVision had a decline relative to the previous sequential quarter.

Figure 1 below provides a bar graph of each vendor's revenue for Q1 2005, Q4 2005, and Q1 2006 in sequence. ARM is obviously the dominant revenue player with 55% of the G7 total. Rambus is second with 23%. MIPS and Virage Logic are next with 8% and 7%, respectively.

Figure 1 Quarterly Revenues of the Group-of-7 (G7) IP Providers
(US$ millions)

As shown in Table 2 below, in Q1 2006 the combined earnings of the G7 were $21 million. Only ARM, MIPS, Rambus and Virage Logic reported profit in the quarter. Combined earnings decreased some 4% year-over-year and a significant 30% from the just prior quarter. Combined earnings were ~10% of revenue. ARM, Virage Logic and MoSys had year-over-year increases in earnings. On a sequential basis Rambus' earnings declined 80% while Arm's earnings declined almost 7%. LogicVision, MoSys and Virage Logic had increases.

Q1 2006 Results of Individual Electronics IP Providers:

On April 19, 2006 ARM Holdings plc announced the results for their first quarter, the period ended March 31, 2006. Total revenue for the quarter was £64.6 million

Licensing revenue in the quarter was £25.2 million, accounting for 39% of total revenue. This was an increase of 2% year over year, but a decrease of nearly 2% sequentially. Royalty revenue was £28.1 million, accounting for 43% of total revenue. This was an increase of 34% year-over-year, and an 11% increase sequentially. Development systems at £7.9 million accounted for 12% of total revenue, and services at £3.4 million accounted for just over 5% of total revenue. Table 3 shows the reveue splits in US dollars.

The Processor Division (PD), formerly the original ARM prior to the Artisan acquisition, had revenues of $71 million, an increase of 15% compared to the same period last year and an increase of nearly 7% compared to the prior quarter. The Physical IP division (PIPD), the Artisan division established after the acquisition at the end of 2004, had revenues of $22.1 million, a decrease of almost 8% year over year, but an increase of 1.4% sequentially. The PD division accounted for 64% of revenue and the PIPD division for only 20%.

Warren East, Chief Executive Officer, said: "We have seen encouraging activity in both licensing and royalties this quarter… We continued to extend our market penetration across the span of digital products with royalty units increasing 47% compared to the same period last year. Q1's result further underpins our confidence that ARM will achieve another strong performance in 2006 in line with current market expectations."

Tim Score, Chief Financial Officer, added: "Year-on-year growth in revenue and earnings per share of 17% and 34% respectively, has again yielded strong cash generation in the quarter. With royalty revenues continuing to grow as a proportion of total revenues, operating margin and cash flow are expected to increase, leaving us well-placed both to invest in the innovative technology that drives future growth in licensing revenue and to continue the return of cash to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends."

On April 25, 2006 Ceva Inc. announced the results for the first quarter, the period ended March 31, 2006. Total revenue for the quarter was $8.1 million, a decrease of 19% from the $10 million in the same quarter a year earlier, but a 6% increase form the $7.6 million in the prior quarter. This was in the middle of the guidance range. Royalty revenue was $1.8 million, or 22% of total revenue, an increase of 3% compared to $1.7 million reported for the first quarter of 2005 and a decrease of 7% compared to $1.9 million reported for the fourth quarter of 2005. Revenue from services was $1.0 million, or 12% of total revenue, a decrease of 18% compared to $1.2 million for the first quarter of 2005 and a decrease of 16% compared to $1.2 million reported for the fourth quarter of 2005. License revenue was $5.3 million accounting for 66% of total revenue. This was a decrease about 25% year-over-year, but an increase of 15% sequentially. In the quarter, licensees shipped 48.7 millions units, an increase of 57% from the same quarter a year ago and an increase of 26% from the prior quarter. 23 millions of these units were covered by prepaid royalties.

Net loss for the quarter was $0.8 million, compared to net income of $0.6 million for the first quarter of 2005 and net loss of $0.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2005.

Gideon Wertheizer, Chief Executive Officer of CEVA, said: "We are encouraged by the financial results for the first quarter of 2006, which shows sequential revenue growth from the fourth quarter of 2005 derived from our strong product line. In the quarter we signed significant licensing agreements for our DSP cores with two leading companies, one in Europe and one in the United States, who plan to deploy our DSP cores in their mainstream high-volume applications. We also reached a major milestone with our innovative MobileMedia2000 video technology by demonstrating during the quarter a full silicon solution of DVD quality H.264 video for mobile applications."

On April 25, 2006 LogicVision, Inc. announced the results for the first quarter, the period ended March 31, 2006. Total revenue for the quarter was $2.3 million, a decrease of 36% from the $3.7 million a year earlier and a decrease for nearly 5% from the $2.5 million in the prior quarter. This was at the high end of guidance range. License revenue was $1.2 million, accounting for 52% of total revenue. This was a decrease of 55% from the first quarter last year, and down 8% from the prior quarter. Service revenue was $1.1 million, an increase of 48% year-over-year, and a decrease of 1.5% sequentially.

New orders received in the quarter totaled $3.3 million, of which $2.4 million is expected to be recognized as ratable revenue over the next 12 months. The company exited the quarter with a record backlog of $21 million up form $20 million at the end of the prior quarter.

Net loss for the quarter was $2.2 million, compared to a loss of $1.8 million a year earlier and essentially flat compared to the $2.5 million in the prior quarter.

James Healy, president and CEO of LogicVision, said: "This quarter, we are pleased to have achieved the highest first quarter bookings since 2002, and an increase of three times the bookings from a year ago. We entered the second quarter of 2006 with a record backlog. Our goal remains to achieve positive cash flow an profitability by the end of the year and we believe that we are on track to meet that goal."

On April 20, 2006 MIPS Technologies Inc. announced results for the third quarter of their 2006 financial year. Total revenue was $17.5 million, an increase of 4.2% from the $16.8 million in the same quarter a year ago and up 7% from the prior quarter. This is near the midpoint of the range given as guidance a quarter ago. Royalty revenue was $9.3 million accounting for 53% of total revenue. This was an increase of 8.4% year over year, and 4.5% sequentially. Contract revenue was $8.2 million accounting for 47% of total revenue. This was an increase of 4% year over year, and a 7% increase sequentially.

Net income for the quarter was $2.2 million. This is a drop of 44% from the $4 million in the same quarter last year, and a decrease of 7% compared to the prior quarter. Beginning in September 2005, the firm recognized equity-based compensation expense pursuant to the fair value method under SFAS 123R. This expense in the current quarter was $1.8 million

John Bourgoin, president and CEO said: "Revenues climbed to a five-year high, although they were slightly below our guidance. Licensing revenues were driven by our flagship products, as our cost-performance leadership is having increasing impact, especially in the digital television and DVD markets. Particularly noteworthy was a new agreement with ESS Technology, a global leader in DVD and Digital Video chip design."

In January 2006, MIPS announced the promotion of Mervin S. Kato to the position of chief financial officer. Mr. Kato, most recently vice president of finance and corporate controller. In February 2006, MIPS announced the appointment of Kate Hunt Rundle to the position of vice president, general counsel.

On May 2, 2006 Monolithic System Technology, Inc. (MoSys) reported the results for the first quarter, the period ended March 31, 2006. Total revenue for the quarter was $3.5 million, compared to $2.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2005 and $2.7 million recorded for the first quarter of 2005, up 31% and 47%, respectively. Total revenue for the quarter was in line with the Company's previously announced guidance range of $3.0 million to $4.0 million. License revenue was $1.3 million, accounting for 64% of total revenue. This was an increase of 87% year-over-year, and a 70% increase sequentially. Royalty revenue was $1.2 million, accounting for 36% of total revenue. This was a decrease of 14% year-over-year, but an 18% increase sequentially.

Net loss for the quarter was $974 thousand compared to net losses of $1.3 million in the same quarter a year ago and $1.1 million in the previous quarter.

Chet Silvestri, Chief Executive Officer of MoSys, commented: "We are pleased with the strong customer interest in our 1T-SRAM Technology and the progress we are making towards finalizing a number of 65nm agreements. The industry is moving very quickly to implement new designs in 65nm. Our high density memory technology is easily scalable to 65nm and is rapidly becoming the memory of choice for high volume consumer electronics applications."

He continued, "We expect the average dollar amount of our licensing contracts to increase as our licensees look to us to provide larger memory size macros at advanced geometries. The number of royalty paying licensees is also trending upward as our licensees are more rapidly moving from the development phase to the production phase by utilizing our pre-configured macros to shorten their time-to-market."

On April 19, 2005 Rambus Inc. reported results for the first quarter of 2006, the period ending March 31, 2006. Total revenue for the quarter was a record $47.2 million, up 19% over the $36.9 million in the first quarter last year and up 14% from the $41.6 million in the previous quarter. This was above the high end of guidance given a quarter ago. The revenue increase was due chiefly to royalty fees received as a result of the AMD and Fujitsu agreements, signed in the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, respectively. Contract revenue was $5.6 million, accounting for nearly 12% of total revenue. Contract revenue decreased 16% year-over-year and 19% sequentially due to the completion of certain XDR DRAM and FlexIO processor bus related contracts in the fourth quarter of 2005. Royalty revenue was $41.7 million accounting for 88% of total revenue. This was up 26% year-over-year and 20% sequentially.

In March 2006, Rambus announced it had signed a 5 year patent license agreement with Fujitsu Limited. Fujitsu's payment amounts will be based in part on the relative volume of DRAM that Fujitsu purchases from Rambus-licensed or unlicensed memory suppliers. Rambus estimates the value of this agreement in the range of $108 million to $198 million. In January 2006, Rambus also announced a similar five year patent license agreement with Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. The value of that agreement is around $75 million.

Net income for the quarter was $1.8 million, a drop of 81% from the $4.4 million a year earlier and a decrease of 81% from the $8.2 million in the prior quarter. This Q1 2006 figure included $5.2 million for after tax non-cash stock-based compensation, the first quarter tin which Rambus began recognizing stock-based compensation pursuant to the provisions of FAS 123. Litigation expenses in the quarter were $8.4 million, down form $11 million in the year ago quarter and essentially flat with the prior quarter.

Harold Hughes, president and chief executive officer at Rambus , said: "Achieving back to back record revenue is a great accomplishment and showcases the growing market appreciation of the value delivered by Rambus' innovations. We continue to make solid progress with our patent licensing efforts and are pleased with our results for the first quarter of 2006."

On April 24, 2006, Rambus announced that in its patent infringement suit against Hynix Semiconductor, a jury had awarded Rambus $306 million in damages. The award represents compensation only for that portion of Hynix's SDRAM, DDR SDRAM and DDR2 memory products sold in the United States. The damage award covered Hynix sales between June 2000 and the end of 2005. This award does not yet include any pre-judgment interest. Rambus has also asked for permanent injunctive relief against Hynix to stop the manufacture, use, sale, or import of infringing Hynix memory products. Rambus has other patent cases pending against Micron, Samsung and Nanya.

On April 12, 2006, Rambus announced the appointment of Satish Rishi to the position of senior vice president, finance and chief financial officer. Prior to joining Rambus, Mr. Rishi held the position of EVP of finance and CFO of Toppan Photomasks, Inc., one of the world's leading photomask providers. He has also served as vice president and assistant treasurer at Dell Inc. Previous to Dell, Mr. Rishi spent 13 years at Intel Corporation. The last position he held at Intel was assistant treasurer.

On May 3, 2006 Virage Logic Corporation reported results for its second quarter of fiscal 2006, the period ended March 31, 2006. Total revenue for the quarter was $15.2 million, compared with $12.8 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2005 and $13.7 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2006. License revenue was $10.4 million, compared with $10.1 million a year earlier and $10.4 million for the previous quarter. Royalty revenue was $4.8 million, up 81% year-over-year from $2.7 million and up 46% sequentially from $3.3 million.

Net income for the quarter was $176 thousand, compared with a net loss of $988 thousand for the same period a year ago and with a net loss of $242 thousand for the previous quarter. Net income for the Q1 2006 quarter included $1.9 million of stock-based compensation expense per the adoption of FAS123R. During the quarterly conference call, Jens Meyerhoff announced his resignation to pursue an opportunity outside of California.

Adam Kablanian, Virage CEO and President, said: "Our historical emphasis on developing semiconductor intellectual property for advanced process nodes allowed us to post strong, profitable royalty growth, moving us to the next level in royalty revenues as designs based on these nodes continued to ramp in volume. Our future success demands the efficient development of performance optimized semiconductor IP at the advanced process nodes. During the quarter, we have taken first steps toward the expansion of our engineering development capacity and the build out of scalable infrastructure around our business processes to further improve our ability to drive leadership at the advanced process nodes of 90-nanometer and below."

Stock Market Prices of the G7 Electronics IP Providers

As shown in Tables 4 and 5, and Figure 2 below, the combined stock prices for the G7 increased in absolute terms 37% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. The average percentage change was up over 19% year-over-year, but down nearly 3% sequentially. During the first quarter of 2006, the major stock indexes increased nearly 11% year-over-year and 6% sequentially.

Rambus had the largest year-over-year percentage increase at 161%. MoSys had a very healthy 52% growth. The largest decliners were Logic Vision and MIPS at 47% and 35%, respectively.

On a sequential basis, Rambus was again the leader at 71% and MoSys was again second at 42%. LogicVision, Virage Logic and Ceva suffered sequential declines.

Figure 2 -- G7 IP Providers Stock Prices

Forecast Guidance from Individual IP Providers

The forecast from the six EDA companies (of the G7) who provided guidance calls for year-over-year growth at 20% and sequential growth for the next quarter at 4%. See Table 6. All but Ceva forecast year-over-year growth and with the exception of LogicVision that growth is expected to be above 20%. On a sequential basis all but MIPS are forecasting growth. MoSys and LogicVision are forecasting low double digit growth.

Individual Company by Company Guidance

For guidance Ceva expects revenue in the next quarter to be in the range of $8 million to $9 million. This compares to $8.1 million in the quarter just completed and to $9.2 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Guidance for the year is for revenue between $35 million and $37 million.

For guidance LogicVision expects revenue in the next quarter to be in the range of $2.6 million to $2.7 million. Net loss is expected to be in the range of $1.8 million to $2.0 million. This compares to $2.3 million in revenue for the quarter just completed and to $2.5 million in the same quarter a year ago.

As guidance MIPS expects total revenue to be flat relative to the prior quarter where revenue was $17.5 million. More specifically MIPS expects royalty revenue to decrease 5% to 10% and license revenue to increase 5% to 10%. This compares to $14.3 million in the same quarter a year ago.

As guidance MoSys expects total revenue for the second quarter of 2006 to range from $3.5 million to $4.5 million. This compares to $3.5 million in the quarter just completed and to $3.1 in the same quarter a year earlier.

As guidance Rambus expects revenue in the next quarter to be in the range of $48 million to $51 million. This compares to $47.2 million in the quarter just completed and $40 million in the same quarter a year earlier.

As guidance Virage Logic expects revenues of approximately $15.2 million to $15.7 million, including royalties of approximately $4.3 million to $4.6 million.

EDA Consortium's Market Statistics

On April 6, 2006, the EDA Consortium's Market Statistics Service (MSS) announced that EDA industry revenue for Q4 of 2005 was $1,253 million, versus $1,191 million in the fourth quarter of 2004, an increase of only 5%.

During Q4 2005, CAE accounted for 43% of the total revenue, IC Design and Verification for 28%, PCB and MCM for 7%, Semiconductor IP for 17% and Services for 5.5%. See Table 7.

During Q4 of 2005, North America accounted for 45% of total revenue, Europe for 22%, Japan for 20% and ROW for 12.5%. See Table 8.

Walden C. Rhines, chairman of the EDA Consortium and chairman and CEO of Mentor Graphics Corporation, said: "The EDA industry continued to strengthen in the fourth quarter. Revenues were up in all regions and most product lines."

For the year 2005 CAE accounted for 42% of the total EDA market, IC Design & Verification 26%, PCB + MCM 7.5%, Semiconductor IP 18% and Services 6%. Table 9 reveals a meager 3% total EDA growth year over year.

The EDA Consortium is the international association of companies that provide tools and services that enable engineers to create the world's electronic products. EDA is the critical technology used to design electronics for the communications, computer, space technology, medical and industrial equipment and consumer electronics markets among others.

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About the Authors

Since 1996, Dr. Russ Henke has been president of HENKE ASSOCIATES, a San Francisco Bay Area high-tech business & management consulting firm. The number of client companies for Henke Associates now numbers more than three dozen. During his corporate career, Henke operated sequentially on "both sides" of MCAD and EDA, as a user and as a vendor. He's a veteran corporate executive from Cincinnati Milacron, SDRC, Schlumberger Applicon, Gould Electronics, ATP, and Mentor Graphics. Henke is a Fellow of the Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) and served on the SME International Board of Directors. He is also a member of the IEEE and a Fellow of ASME International. In April 2006, Dr. Henke received the 2006 Lifetime Achievement Award from The CAD Society, presented at COFES2006 in Scottsdale, AZ.

An affiliate of the HENKE ASSOCIATES team since 2001, LA-based Dr. John R. (Jack) Horgan co-authored this article. Jack's career has included executive positions at Applicon, Aries Technology, CADAM and MICROCADAM, as well as a stint at IBM.

Since May 2003 the authors have now published a total of forty (40) independent articles on MCAD, PLM, EDA and Electronics IP on IBSystems' MCADCafé and EDACafé. Further information on HENKE ASSOCIATES, and URL's for past Commentaries, are available at http://www.henkeassociates.net.