TOKYO, Japan – December 6, 2011 – SEMI projects that worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment will reach $41.8 billion in 2011, according to the year-end edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Forecast, released here today by SEMI at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition.
The forecast indicates that, following a 151 percent market increase in 2010, the equipment market will expand by 4.7 percent in 2011. However, it is forecast to decline about 10.8 percent in 2012 before resuming growth in 2013. Equipment revenues of $41.8 billion are roughly equivalent with 2007 investment levels.
"Given the exceptional growth in the market from 2009 to 2010, the lower growth rate in 2011 is expected, not surprising," said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. "The industry experiences highly cyclical markets, with the rebound likely to occur in 2013."
Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to increase 9.3 percent in 2011 to almost $32.7 billion. The forecast predicts that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will decline by 12.5 percent to $3.4 billion in 2011. The market for semiconductor test equipment is forecasted to decline by 10.3 percent, reaching $3.7 billion this year.
Growth is expected in four regions in 2011— Europe (66.9 percent increase over 2010), North America (53.0 percent), Japan (31.2 percent), and China (2.3 percent). In 2011, North America becomes the largest market for equipment with $8.8 billion, followed by Taiwan ($8.1 billion), South Korea ($8.0 billion) and Japan ($5.8 billion). Taiwan, South Korea, and Rest of World experienced negative growth rates in 2011.
In 2012, only South Korea is expected to have positive growth (7.5 percent). In 2013, the market is expected to rebound for all regions except South Korea, due to high growth in 2012.
The following results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars and percentage growth over the prior year:
Forecast by Equipment Segment
|
Equipment Type |
2010** |
2011 Forecast |
% Chg |
2012 Forecast |
% Chg |
2013 Forecast |
% Chg |
|
Wafer Processing |
29.91 |
32.68 |
9.3% |
28.90 |
-11.6% |
31.27 |
8.2% |
|
Test |
4.15 |
3.72 |
-10.3% |
3.56 |
-4.4% |
3.58 |
0.5% |
|
Assembly & Packaging |
3.88 |
3.39 |
-12.5% |
3.04 |
-10.4% |
3.25 |
6.8% |
|
Other* |
1.99 |
2.00 |
0.8% |
1.78 |
-11.0% |
1.96 |
9.8% |
|
Total |
$39.93 |
$41.80 |
4.7% |
$37.28 |
-10.8% |
$40.05 |
7.4% |
Forecast by Region
|
Region |
2010** |
2011 Forecast |
% Chg |
2012 Forecast |
% Chg |
2013 Forecast |
% Chg |
|
Taiwan |
11.25 |
8.05 |
-28.4% |
6.88 |
-14.6% |
8.33 |
21.1% |
|
South Korea |
8.63 |
7.99 |
-7.5% |
8.59 |
7.5% |
8.36 |
-2.7% |
|
N. America |
5.75 |
8.80 |
53.0% |
6.77 |
-23.1% |
7.20 |
6.3% |
|
Japan |
4.44 |
5.82 |
31.2% |
5.23 |
-10.2% |
5.69 |
8.8% |
|
Rest of World |
3.84 |
3.47 |
-9.7% |
2.93 |
-15.5% |
3.15 |
7.5% |
|
China |
3.68 |
3.77 |
2.3% |
3.53 |
-6.2% |
3.80 |
7.7% |
|
Europe |
2.34 |
3.90 |
66.9% |
3.35 |
-14.1% |
3.52 |
4.9% |
|
Total |
$39.93 |
$41.80 |
4.7% |
$37.28 |
-10.8% |
$40.05 |
7.4% |
Source: SEMI November 2011
* Totals and percentages may differ due to rounding of numbers
** 2010 data was revised upwards about one percent. The revision is due to the addition of missing company data and corrected input.